From the Friday, August 19, 2016 edition of MIRS
The projection gurus at fivethirtyeight.com give Democrat presidential nominee Hillary CLINTON a 91.7 percent chance of winning Michigan, and they’re not alone.
Participants were given four options when asked to assess Trump’s odds in Michigan — 24 percent, 25 to 49 percent, 50 to 74 percent and 75 to 100 percent. A 55 percent majority picked the first choice.
While it is not surprising that only 2 percent of Democrats gave Trump 50 percent or better odds, it’s worth noting that only 40 percent of Republicans still have some optimism, giving their candidate a 50 percent chance or better of winning Michigan.
Insiders were more optimistic about Democrats picking up a Michigan congressional seat, with 52 percent of respondents giving the Democrats a 50 percent chance or better.
Not surprising, Democrats were more optimistic than Republicans, with 70 percent of Democrats giving themselves a 50 percent or better chance. Only 35 percent of Republicans gave Democrats a 50 percent or better chance of Republicans taking a congressional seat in Michigan.
On whether Democrats would net the nine state House seats needed to take majority, only 47 percent of Democrats put the odds at 50 percent or better. Only 15 percent of Republicans gave the Democrats a 50 percent chance or better of retaking the House.
Finally, insiders were asked if they felt Rep. Brian BANKS (D-Harper Woods) would finish his final term in office and he’s not going to be encouraged by the results.
Only 21 percent thought he had a 50 percent or better chance of completing his final term. Banks is fighting legal charges from the state Attorney General that he submitted phony pay stubs six years ago as a way to secure a loan from a savings and loan (See “Banks To Stand Trial On All Charges,” 8/9/16).
If convicted, Banks could face life in prison as an habitual offender.
MIRS and Denno Research received 323 responses to the four-question survey. Secretary of the Senate Jeff COBB won the $10 Biggsby gift certificate.