Obama/Romney In Michigan Dead Heat, Dems More Excited To Vote For Their Candidate Than Republicans, LE&A/Denno Research Survey Says
Lansing, Michigan, June 25, 2012 – A statewide poll taken last week by Lambert, Edwards & Associates (LE&A) – Michigan’s largest bi-partisan public relations firm – and Denno Research shows a statistical dead heat in Michigan in the race between President Barack Obama and GOP candidate Mitt Romney.
The survey, conducted June 14-15, asked 600 likely Michigan voters their preference for November’s presidential election and both men each garnered 40 percent of the vote, with the remaining 20 percent saying they are still undecided.
“When you couple the results of our poll with the results of other polls conducted recently in Michigan, the outcome is still uncertain in the Great Lakes State,” said Jeff Lambert, President and Managing Partner of LE&A. “I think this forecasts more attention and more visits from President Obama and Mr. Romney in the coming months.”
In critical swing counties, both candidates are also tied. In Macomb County, both candidates got 40 percent of the vote, while in Oakland County, Obama got 42 percent and Romney 41 percent.
“The good news for Romney is that his base is starting to come home, with 87 percent of self- identified Republicans stating that they would vote for him and only 3 percent of Republicans supporting Obama,” Lambert said. “More than 85 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama. All these results really mean is that turnout will be very important this year.”
Romney’s best news is that he has a 6 percent lead over Obama with self-identified independent voters, 36 percent to 30 percent, said Dennis Denno, President of Denno Research. Romney also has a 6% lead over Obama with white voters, 45 percent to 36 percent.
“If there’s a War on Women going on in Michigan, someone forgot to tell female voters, because they are evenly divided between the candidates at 40 percent also,” Denno said.
The best news in the LE&A/Denno Poll for Obama is a significant disparity over Romney with callers contacted over a cell phone, 58 percent versus 18 percent. This is significant, Denno said, considering that more people are going to cell phones and that most polls are probably under-representing cell phones.
While the economy might be stabilizing in the state, that doesn’t necessarily translate to Michigan voters wanting to see their Governor as the next Republican Vice Presidential candidate.
Only 20 percent of voters said they would be much more likely or more likely to vote for Romney, while 48 percent said they would be less likely or much less likely to vote for Romney if Snyder was his VP candidate.
“While it’s not surprising that only five percent of Democrats were excited about Snyder as a VP candidate, not even a majority of Republicans were excited about Governor Snyder as the VP of their party,” Lambert said. “Our poll shows only 38 percent supportive of the idea, with 24% not supportive. Independent voters were at 20 percent support and 32% not supportive.
Finally, the LE&A/Denno Poll asked Dems and Republicans if they were excited to vote for their respective candidate in the fall. Only 56 percent were excited to vote for Romney for President, with 40 percent stating that they are not excited or strongly opposed to voting for Romney. In contrast, an overwhelming number of Democrats are excited to vote for Obama, at 75 percent either very excited or excited and only 22 percent not excited or strongly opposed.
The LE&A/Denno Research poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
About Lambert, Edwards & Associates
Named the 2010 PRWeek Small Agency of the Year, LE&A (www.lambert-edwards.com) is a top-10 Midwest-based PR firm and a top-20 investor relations firm nationally with clients based in 20 states and five countries. As Michigan’s only statewide firm – with offices in Grand Rapids, Lansing and Detroit – LE&A serves middle-market companies and national brands in five practice areas: Automotive, Consumer, Financial Communications, Health Care and Public Affairs. LE&A has earned four Silver Anvil awards – the profession’s highest honor – in the past four years. Follow us on Twitter: @LambertEdwards.
About Denno Research
The staff of Denno Research brings more than 20 years of experience in polling and they are a full service public opinion company located in Michigan. They offer experience in polling for political campaigns, corporations, associations, and non-profit organizations and have worked with clients in both Michigan and New Jersey. They have been in business since 2004 and have conducted statewide surveys to measure the pulse of voters since 2006.
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